In recent years, the weather has had more and more surprises for us. We observe cold snaps in southern countries and high temperatures in the northern regions of the planet. Nevertheless, global warming is still considered a controversial topic among amateurs, although for the professional research community it ceased to be a subject of controversy a long time ago. In this sense, the Arctic and Siberia are of particular interest to scientists as territories on which the global weather “agenda” is being formed. The material about the work of TSU researchers in the Russian North was published on the Euronews website in mid-August. It tells about the melting of permafrost and the changing landscape as a result of it.
It is no exaggeration to say that Siberians more than anyone else feel the effects of climate change: the favorite saying that "winter in Siberia lasts nine months" has lost its relevance. Year after year, snow begins to melt early and rapidly in spring; summer temperatures stay high for a long time; and Indian autumn lasts until the end of October. Twenty years ago, at the end of the second decade of October, there was already a snow cover. We can say that the climate in Siberia has become more comfortable for living.
However, frequent gale winds, hail, and thunderstorms came along with the heat to our region, and in recent years, even tornadoes have been recorded in Omsk, the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Region, and in Altai! The reason for the unstable atmosphere is the more frequent cyclones: since 2008, their number has grown by 3.5 times.
One of the problems solved by the scientists of Tomsk State University is a high level of error in forecasting local cyclones and associated weather events. In 2020, unexpected hail destroyed part of the crop, and dry thunderstorms caused several large fires.
Identifying patterns and improving the accuracy of forecasts became the objectives of the research of Evgeny Tunaev, a young TSU graduate student, leading forecaster of the Novosibirsk Weather Center. In the course of his work, Evgeny estimated perennial stable foci of formation and development of local cyclones and made a map of their localization. This will help synoptic services to make more accurate forecasts in the future.
In general, TSU scientists are preparing us for the fact that we will live in new weather conditions for a long time since the average duration of climatic cycles is about 30 years. But, as they say, whoever is warned in advance is ready to react adequately!
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